US consumer confidence fell in June as the outlook for business conditions, the labor market, and earnings dropped.
The Conference Board’s index of state of mind fell to 100.4 from a downwardly revised 101.3 in May, according to statistics released Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 100.
The index examines both Americans’ views of current economic circumstances and their expectations for the coming six months.
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The index of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business, and the labor market declined to 73 from 74.9 in May. A rating below 80 may indicate a probable collapse shortly.
The opinions of consumers on current conditions increased in June to 141.5, up from 140.8 in May.
“US Consumer Confidence fell in June but stayed within the same narrow range of the past two years, as stable views on the current labor market outweighed future concerns,” said Dana Peterson, senior economist at the Conference Board.
Even though the unemployment rate increased to 4% in May, American employers created a healthy 272,000 jobs this month, indicating that businesses are optimistic enough about the economy to continue hiring despite obstinately high interest rates.
Labor Market Strain, Inflation, and Recession Fears
U.S. consumer confidence declined slightly in August 2025, with The Conference Board’s index dropping to 97.4 from 98.7 in July. Although the slide was modest and well within the recent narrow range, it underscores growing unease about the country’s economic trajectory.
A deeper look reveals that confidence in the short‑term future—tracking expectations around income, jobs, and business conditions – plunged to 74.8, well under the 80‑point threshold that typically raises alarm bells for a possible recession. It marks the eighth straight month of declining confidence in the job market, with the percentage of consumers reporting that jobs are “hard to get” increasing to 20%, up from 18.9% in July.
Underlying this shift is a real softening in labor demand. July’s job creation missed expectations badly—only 73,000 new positions were added, while earlier months’ figures were revised down by a total of 258,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%.
Rising inflation concerns and the lingering impact of tariffs also weighed on sentiment. While consumer prices held steady from June to July, wholesale inflation jumped unexpectedly – pointing to higher costs filtering through to the consumer level. The share of Americans expecting a recession within the year climbed to its highest level since early in the year.
All told, August’s pullback reflects a deepening mix of labor market worries, inflation pressures, and recession fears, even if the headline drop was relatively modest. Policymakers and businesses alike will be watching closely to see whether these signs represent a temporary pause in recovery – or an early signal of broader economic strains ahead.
